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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Notre Dame

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:70.0
Current RPI:70
Expected SOS:46
Current SOS:46
Current Record:19-14
Expected Record:19-14
Current Conf Record:10-11
Expected Conf Record:10-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:6-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:7-0
Current OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC Record:9-3
Expected OOC RPI:80
Expected OOC SOS:174



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
19-1470.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Notre Dame.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11DePaul (186.0)BEA58-72W100%0.0
11-13Mount St. Mary's (225.0)NECH88-62W100%0.0
11-16Chicago St. (335.0)WACH105-66W100%0.0
11-21LSU (95.0)SECN53-92W100%0.0
11-22Wichita St. (16.0)AmerN67-66W100%0.0
11-30Michigan St. (14.0)B10A81-63L0%0.0
12-3St. Francis NY (276.0)NECH71-53W100%0.0
12-5Ball St. (126.0)MACH77-80L0%0.0
12-9Delaware (233.0)CAAA68-92W100%0.0
12-16Indiana (125.0)B10N80-77L0%0.0
12-19Dartmouth (334.0)IvyH97-87W100%0.0
12-21Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)SlndH86-50W100%0.0
12-30Georgia Tech (161.0)ACCH68-59W100%0.0
1-3North Carolina St. (64.0)ACCH88-58W100%0.0
1-6Syracuse (45.0)ACCA49-51W100%0.0
1-10Georgia Tech (161.0)ACCA60-53L0%0.0
1-13North Carolina (4.0)ACCH68-69L0%0.0
1-16Louisville (38.0)ACCH78-82L0%0.0
1-20Clemson (11.0)ACCA67-58L0%0.0
1-27Virginia Tech (61.0)ACCH75-80L0%0.0
1-29Duke (7.0)ACCA88-66L0%0.0
2-3North Carolina St. (64.0)ACCA76-58L0%0.0
2-6Boston College (96.0)ACCH96-85W100%0.0
2-10Florida St. (54.0)ACCH84-69W100%0.0
2-12North Carolina (4.0)ACCA83-66L0%0.0
2-17Boston College (96.0)ACCA67-84W100%0.0
2-19Miami FL (28.0)ACCH74-77L0%0.0
2-24Wake Forest (160.0)ACCA71-76W100%0.0
2-28Pittsburgh (217.0)ACCH73-56W100%0.0
3-3Virginia (1.0)ACCA62-57L0%0.0
3-6Pittsburgh (217.0)ACCN67-64W100%0.0
3-7Virginia Tech (61.0)ACCN65-71W100%0.0
3-8Duke (7.0)ACCN88-70L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Notre Dame's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Notre Dame's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Notre Dame.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Notre DameACC26.1126.1156.2956.293.293.29
North CarolinaACC3.733.7369.7069.701.471.47
DukeACC3.733.7377.4277.422.042.04
Boston CollegeACC3.693.6959.3859.380.690.69
PittsburghACC3.613.6126.6726.67-1.69-1.69
North Carolina St.ACC3.613.6166.6766.671.201.20
Virginia TechACC3.593.5966.6766.671.201.20
Georgia TechACC3.593.5940.0040.00-0.72-0.72
VirginiaACC2.212.2193.7593.751.941.94
ClemsonACC2.212.2170.9770.970.930.93
LouisvilleACC2.202.2059.3859.380.410.41
SyracuseACC2.192.1962.5062.500.550.55
Miami FLACC2.192.1970.0070.000.870.87
Wake ForestACC2.172.1736.6736.67-0.58-0.58
Florida St.ACC2.122.1266.6766.670.710.71
Michigan St.B101.681.6887.5087.501.261.26
IndianaB101.631.6350.0050.000.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.611.6155.1755.170.170.17
St. Francis NYNEC1.571.5739.2939.29-0.34-0.34
DartmouthIvy1.561.5624.0024.00-0.81-0.81
DePaulBE1.541.5436.6736.67-0.41-0.41
Ball St.MAC1.521.5256.6756.670.200.20
Chicago St.WAC1.521.523.453.45-1.41-1.41
DelawareCAA1.521.5240.0040.00-0.30-0.30
LSUSEC1.521.5256.6756.670.200.20
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd1.521.5265.5265.520.470.47
Wichita St.Amer1.521.5280.6580.650.930.93
BryantNEC0.200.209.689.68-0.16-0.16
TennesseeSEC0.190.1975.7675.760.100.10
Sacred HeartNEC0.180.1830.0030.00-0.07-0.07
Robert MorrisNEC0.180.1848.4848.48-0.01-0.01
MarquetteBE0.170.1759.3859.380.030.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.170.1743.7543.75-0.02-0.02
St. Francis PANEC0.170.1757.1457.140.020.02
IowaB100.140.1442.4242.42-0.02-0.02
NorthwesternB100.140.1445.1645.16-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.140.1441.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Penn St.B100.140.1461.7661.760.030.03
WisconsinB100.140.1445.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.140.1475.0075.000.070.07
MichiganB100.140.1479.4179.410.080.08
YaleIvy0.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.130.1351.5251.520.000.00
NavyPat0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
UMKCWAC0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
North FloridaASun0.120.1236.6736.67-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
HoustonAmer0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
ElonCAA0.120.1240.0040.00-0.02-0.02
RutgersB100.120.1242.4242.42-0.02-0.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.120.1277.4277.420.070.07
FloridaSEC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
TulaneAmer0.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.120.1246.6746.67-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.110.1140.7440.74-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.100.1026.9226.92-0.05-0.05
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.100.1070.0070.000.040.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1083.3383.330.070.07
Kent St.MAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
McNeese St.Slnd0.100.1032.0032.00-0.04-0.04
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
GeorgetownBE0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.1065.5265.520.030.03
Eastern MichiganMAC0.100.1058.6258.620.020.02
MinnesotaB100.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.100.106.676.67-0.08-0.08
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1024.2424.24-0.05-0.05
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
TowsonCAA0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
PurdueB100.100.1082.3582.350.060.06
Houston BaptistSlnd0.100.1010.7110.71-0.08-0.08
LehighPat0.100.1051.7251.720.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
St. John'sBE0.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.090.0970.5970.590.040.04
TempleAmer0.090.0953.1253.120.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.090.0961.7661.760.020.02
RichmondA100.090.0937.5037.50-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.090.0958.0658.060.020.02
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.090.0967.6567.650.030.03
NebraskaB100.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
South Carolina St.MEAC0.090.0926.6726.67-0.04-0.04
WoffordSC0.090.0960.0060.000.020.02
BrownIvy0.080.0838.4638.46-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.080.0842.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
Northern IllinoisMAC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Western MichiganMAC0.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
MaineAE0.070.0713.3313.33-0.05-0.05
DuquesneA100.070.0750.0050.000.000.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
OhioMAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
NortheasternCAA0.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.070.0730.0030.00-0.03-0.03
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0715.6215.62-0.05-0.05
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
UCFAmer0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.070.0777.4277.420.040.04
HofstraCAA0.070.0760.0060.000.010.01
BuffaloMAC0.070.0775.7675.760.040.04
ToledoMAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
VanderbiltSEC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
Charleston SouthernBSth0.070.0742.8642.86-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.070.0737.5037.50-0.02-0.02
The CitadelSC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
OaklandHorz0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
MemphisAmer0.070.0761.7661.760.020.02
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.070.0756.2556.250.010.01
West VirginiaB120.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Savannah St.MEAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.070.0773.5373.530.030.03
PortlandWCC0.070.0724.1424.14-0.04-0.04
ColgatePat0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
DavidsonA100.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
HarvardIvy0.060.0656.6756.670.010.01
PennIvy0.060.0674.1974.190.030.03
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
QuinnipiacMAAC0.050.0536.3636.36-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
ArmyPat0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Abilene ChristianSlnd0.050.0544.4444.44-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
New OrleansSlnd0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.058.008.00-0.04-0.04
SeattleWAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
BradleyMVC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
DrakeMVC0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
ValparaisoMVC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
AkronMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
AlabamaSEC0.050.0555.8855.880.010.01
ButlerBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
CreightonBE0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
DrexelCAA0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Indiana St.MVC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
James MadisonCAA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Miami OHMAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
OregonP120.050.0564.7164.710.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
VillanovaBE0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
XavierBE0.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
OklahomaB120.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
South CarolinaSEC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
South FloridaAmer0.050.0531.2531.25-0.02-0.02
Stony BrookAE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
DetroitHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
High PointBSth0.050.0540.7440.74-0.01-0.01
JacksonvilleASun0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.050.0516.6716.67-0.03-0.03
MontanaBSky0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Morehead St.OVC0.050.0522.2222.22-0.03-0.03
North TexasCUSA0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Saint LouisA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
SMUAmer0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
TulsaAmer0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
UCLAP120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
VMISC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
WashingtonP120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Wright St.Horz0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.050.0544.1244.12-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
FurmanSC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Portland St.BSky0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
South DakotaSum0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
HartfordAE0.040.0458.0658.060.010.01
Texas TechB120.040.0472.7372.730.020.02
StanfordP120.040.0454.5554.550.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
New HampshireAE0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
VermontAE0.030.0378.7978.790.020.02
DenverSum0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ManhattanMAAC0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
AmericanPat0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Incarnate WordSlnd0.030.0312.5012.50-0.02-0.02
LamarSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.030.0312.5012.50-0.02-0.02
Morgan St.MEAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.030.0330.7730.77-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Alabama A&MSWAC0.020.029.689.68-0.02-0.02
Alcorn St.SWAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
Boston UniversityPat0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Bowling GreenMAC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Fort WayneSum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
HawaiiBW0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
HowardMEAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
IUPUIHorz0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
LongwoodBSth0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.020.0276.6776.670.010.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
BaylorB120.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
CaliforniaP120.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
East CarolinaAmer0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
South Dakota St.Sum0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Cleveland St.Horz0.020.0232.3532.35-0.01-0.01
George MasonA100.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
HamptonMEAC0.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
IonaMAAC0.020.0260.6160.610.000.00
KansasB120.020.0279.4179.410.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Rhode IslandA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
SienaMAAC0.020.0225.0025.00-0.01-0.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Southern UtahBSky0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
VCUA100.020.0254.5554.550.000.00